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but with these caveats 55% to 60%

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there's a lot of plans this is

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and at the University of Colorado's

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marriage of science class the last time

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after class we actually did the class

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the layout of each of the softball and

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for the period which the plastic hunters

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and actress went through very very

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pristine

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statements the presentation before that

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it's clear that the abused is a our

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assuming that the process inaccuracy is

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independent of

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results confidence that your swing

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we know that in fact the strength

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there is a significance of results which

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are going to actually use them to mr.

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fortune

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we've got additional evidence of that

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the students

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well what I say about the significance

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of how the results are used which should

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not be mistaken for statistical

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significance if you've got something

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riding on the outcome that figure of

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fifty-five to sixty percent that I was

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using as a benchmark was in fact taken

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from a personal and admittedly informal

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and probably sample biased survey of

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cases where people actually have been

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using ARV to try to guide real

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investments that involved real money yes

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it's there's a lot less pressure on you

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if there's nothing riding on the outcome

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and that might have been a factor in

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Courtney's experiment that would have

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diluted their accuracy if it had been

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present however if I assume the accuracy

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was diluted the same strategy still

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applies and still showed a good chance

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selected piece Part A Part B Part II

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today's of the leading a party product

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standpoint countries are decent

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almost always absolutely free of error

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Joe's comment in summary is that a

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highly attractive target will tend to

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draw ARV viewings even if it's not the

48
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one that should be hit which is a

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problem and that automated analysis is

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more reliable than human analysis if

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you've done the upfront work to make it

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feasible alright you know there is no

53
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such thing as free lunch something for

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okay the the question or comment is that

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this can't work if everybody uses it and

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the the quick answer is of course not

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but I don't think it's likely that

58
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everybody will have done a little bit of

59
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work looking at displacement and my

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conclusion is that the displacement

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problem is very intractable and that

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most of the clever ideas that people

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have come up with to try to avert it

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don't actually work all that well so at

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the moment it's it's very much an open